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Free keywords:
lifestyle changes, decarbonisation strategies, integrated assessment models (IAMs), energy system models (ESMs), behavioural change
Abstract:
Evidence suggests that lifestyle changes are a crucial aspect in the design of decarbonisation strategies towards the achievement of Paris Agreement's goals. However, most mitigation scenarios developed with Integrated Assessment and Energy System Models often lack a reliable representation of lifestyle changes, therefore modelled pathways overlook the intricate interplay between the impacts of behavioural change and climate policy instruments. This study addresses this critical gap by introducing methodological improvements in leading sectoral energy models (PRIMES-BuiMo, EDGE-Buildings) to simulate more accurately the effect of potential lifestyle transformations in households. The improved models were used to develop scenarios for the residential sector of the European Union up to 2050, considering two different climate targets and three distinct assumptions about the adoption rate and intensity of lifestyle changes. The findings reveal that lifestyle transformations can lead to substantial reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions of households. Important cost reductions, especially for fuel expenses, resulting from lifestyle changes could help mitigate the risk of energy poverty for vulnerable households in the decarbonisation context. A decomposition analysis of energy savings by behavioural measure showcases the benefit to incorporate lifestyle changes with high mitigation potential such as thermostat set-point adjustments and dwellings downsizing in ambitious climate targets. Showcasing the pivotal role of lifestyle changes in achieving low-carbon futures signals the need for policy to address the drivers and key barriers of demand-side transitions.
